The key to finding successful wagers is using results from the past to get hints at what might happen. For the NBA Finals this year, it is only the second time a 5-seed has reached the finals and the first time was during the 2020 “bubble” season. This means the stats are shifted from a regular season and should be taken with a grain of salt. When trying to find insights for this series between the #1 Boston Celtics and the #5 Dallas Mavericks, you have to focus on this year between their two regular season match-ups and how they are performing in the playoffs.
While it is a relatively limited sample size of less than twenty games for each team, there are still some significant patterns that do not match up with the lines being predicted for them.
Let’s start with the few most common picks people make: moneyline and point spread. The point spreads are both -110 of Celtics -6.5 and Mavericks +6.5. This means, to win by picking the Celtics, they have to win by at least 7 to cover the spread. The Celtics covered this in both of their regular season matchups against the Mavericks, but would have not covered in 3/4 of their Eastern Conference Finals games against the Indiana Pacers. For the Mavericks at +6.5, they would need to win the game or lose by less than 7 points. In the Mavericks’ one loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves, they would have covered this spread, but in both losses to the Celtics during the regular season, they would not cover this spread. Without a large potential payout, I would avoid both of these picks for this game. I would also avoid both sides of the moneyline for this game. The Celtics are at -230, meaning you would get a $100 payout if wagering $230. Predicted about a 69% chance to win, I don’t see the reward to be worth the risk of this pick. For the Mavericks at +190, the reward is far more favorable than the possible reward in the Celtics victory, but historically the road team has found little success in game 1 of the finals. only winning 18 times in NBA History. While the most commonly made picks do not offer much fruit for the possible risk, there are several other lines that do not match up with these teams’ playoff runs so far.
The first is total points. While the line for both the over and under 214.5 is -110, the sum of their playoff averages is 218.1. Excluding overtime points, the Celtics scored an average score of 110.2 points through their 14 playoff games. The Mavericks scored an average of 107.9 points per game. If these teams continue to score on these averages, they would hit the over on 214.5 easily. Both regular season games also exceeded this score, but playoff defense is known to be tougher and refs call less fouls, meaning less scoring opportunities. That being said, both games exceeded this number by a large sum, so even with a decrease in scoring, the over should be a sound bet. While it does not guarantee a very large payout at -110, a 90% return on the initial investment is still very good proportionally to the risk.
Next is to make a pick on who will score the first FG of the game. I am going to preface, this is a for fun, low value pick. Do not wager a large amount of money on this because it is a very randomly occuring stat. With that said though, the lines are very high so the possible reward is significant. At a line of +475, Jaylen Brown to make the first FG of the game is a solid pick if making a low value pick. Brown had 3 of the 4 first FG for the Celtics against the Paces, 2 out of 5 in the Cleveland series, and 2 out of 5 in the Miami series. When combined, Brown made the first Celtics field goal in 50% of their playoff games. Of those 7, 5 were the first FG of the game. Therefore, throughout the playoffs to this point, Brown has made the first field goal in 35.7% of their games. With a very large margin for reward, a 35.7% chance something happens is good value in my opinion.
There are several player props with far less risk than the Brown pick, but they come with a far smaller margin of profit. With that being said though, the likelihood of them happening are far more likely, so wagering larger values is safer.
Continuing with Brown, there are two more picks of his that I like; over 26.5 points + assists and over 2.5 turnovers. The odds for over 26.5 points + assists is -102. So at a nearly 2 to 1 return, the historical are slightly off from what the expectation is. Brown was well over this line in both regular season matchups between the two teams, as well as hitting this line in 9/14 playoff games so far. The implied probability of the odds is 50.5%, he would have hit 64% of their games this playoff, showing a statistical mismatch that could be exploited. The odds for over 2.5 turnovers is +110. Brown has had 3+ turnovers in 7/14 playoff games with 2 occurring in the previous series. The implied odds for the line is 47.62%. There is only a slight difference between the probability and how often he did this in the rest of the playoffs so there is a decent risk for the pick, but it is a risk I would be willing to take.
The next pick is Daniel Gafford over 1.5 blocks at +136. The stats do not match up with the line, which is the exact place you want to be when making a pick. Gafford has been one of the best shot blockers in the NBA this year. In his 45 games with the Washington Wizards he averaged 2.2 blocks per game and in his 29 with the Mavericks during the regular season, he averaged 1.9. He only played 6 minutes in the second matchup between these teams during the regular season, but he had one block. He has been getting far more time during the playoffs and really shined during the Minnesota series. Although he has only had 2+ blocks in 6/17 games during the playoffs, he has found more success in the more recent games. He also averaged over 1.5 blocks in every month of this season, although most of these games were in Washington.
The next pick is Derrick Jones Jr. to have over 1.5 steals+blocks at +154. +154 means the implied probability of the line is 39.37%. Through the players, Jones did this in 9/17 games, which is 52.9%. Those two do not line up even close, making the profit possible far larger than the risk. That being said, he did not have 2 steals+blocks in either match up during the regular season, but he only played 7 minutes and has been averaging 31.2 minutes per game in the playoffs. Playing more means more time to find success hitting this line.
I have two more picks, one in the same vein as Brown for the first FG of the game. The first is Luka Doncic having over 1.5 steals at +140. He has had 2+ steals in 9/17 playoff games this year, which is about 52.9% of the time. At +140, the probability represents 41.67% of the time. This differential makes for a safer reality than projected probability. He hit this line in one of the two games played during the regular season, too. The final pick is Doncic having a triple double at +350 odds. While the odds of a player having a triple double is far lower than any other stat, Doncic has a strong track record of reaching this elusive statistic. He has done this 9 times in his 45 playoff game career, but 6 of those are this postseason. At 6/17, he has reached this stat in 35.3% of his playoff games this year, which does line up with the odds expectations of a 22.2% chance of him doing it. He also hit this mark in both regular season games against the Celtics.
In navigating the complexities of sports picking, it is necessary to find a balance between risk and reward, leveraging both historical data and current trends to inform your decisions. While there are no guarantees in sports picking, a careful analysis of past performances can undoubtedly tilt the odds in our favor.
